Trust, competence and the West’s political malaise

“When the facts change I change my mind” – John Maynard Keynes


The most thoughtful a contemporary Australian politician gets about trust is conceiving it as doing exactly what you said you would on the campaign trail. This is doomed to failure for so many reasons. The reason I want to focus on here is because in opposition you do not have access to all the facts. You do not have treasury modelling. You do not have ministerial staff budgets. You do not have anywhere near the access of the government to civil servants, intellectuals, lobbyists and all the other people that might send you information. These and their attendant facts will come to you when you are in government, and you will thus change your mind once you are in government because you will have all the facts.

Politicians do not respond to this change in their circumstances with Keynes’ logic—when the facts change I change my mind. Instead, they continue to prosecute their campaign promises, which they now know to be incorrect, so that they can do what they said they would. But of course what they said they would do is wrong, and as their time in office drags on, they will be reminded of this by the experts and the public will become aware of it because of those same experts. Politicians will hold the course, terrified of giving their opponents a chance to yell ‘liar!’ in question time, as though this matters to citizens. 
The result is that politicians end up being incompetent and reeking of misdirection for reasons that are entirely within their power to avoid.

If politicians instead told the public how the facts had changed, explained why this necessitated a change of policy and then introduced a policy that worked, they would be perceived in the long-run as both trustworthy and competent.

It is critical to underline here the notion of trustworthiness. A trust worthy politician is someone who consistently has your best interests in mind, and won’t deceive you when acting as your agent. Under the facts at time 1, such a person would, in an earnest and genuine attempt to solve your problems, propose policy A. Upon receiving the new facts at time 2, they would realise that their earlier proposal is incorrect from the point of view of your interests. As they respect your interests, they will then come back to you and explain how the situation has changed and how under these circumstances some different policy is the best for you. They will not hide the truth sheepishly, ducking and weaving from telling it to you straight, as our politicians do. Imagine if your parent, child, partner, boss or subordinate did this? You would be furious. You would instead want them to come clean so that you can work together towards a better outcome. Politicians instead think the public will force choke them for being the bearer of bad news, as though your average punter behaves like Darth Vader.

This kind of honestly and leadership is completely missing from contemporary politicians. In part, I think it is because they are incompetent at governing, being skilled only at politics. They cannot come up with a good policy at time 1 or time 2. As such, they look around not for a good policy, but for a policy that they can sell. Spin is built into their process.

This is exacerbated by the fact that politicians are not only incompetent at governing, but actively relish politics. Governing bores them. It takes an act of will on the part of such a person to engage in the business of governing rather than mere politicking. It is easy for such a person to excuse their lack of attention to matters of policy by blaming the fickle winds of politics because in the background is their great love of those winds, which they themselves fan. Ultimately, politicians (and their cousins in the media) end up believing that their business is to play and spin rather than govern.


So it seems the crisis of confidence that we have in politicians is both a function of their untrustworthiness and their incompetence, and that the first step to solving it is to become competent. A great place to start would be for the parties to recruit to their offices people with actual expertise in policy (and perhaps fewer lawyers). At the very least, have your hacks do your politics and your wonks do your policy, rather than having only hacks doing both. 

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