The decline of Federer

As it is the teaching break and people aren't checking facebook as much I will be publishing sports pieces over the next two weeks. This piece appeared in the o-week edition of Woroni. 

At the Australian Open this year Roger Federer put in a disappointing performance in his semi-final against Andy Murray. 

Not taking anything away from Murray, who played an outstanding match, many commentators have expressed the view that Federer, the greatest player of all time (GOAT), is in decline.

Any word stronger than decline is premature. Federer continues to win a slam each year and even spent time at world #1 in 2012, but he is far from his old, invincible self.

Many have noted that Federer is slowing down, but that is to be expected. He has changed his game accordingly—taking more risks and trying to dictate play from the centre mark. What’s more worrying are other trends.

In years past Federer was widely regarded as having the best serve on tour. He had tremendous variety on both deliveries, a first serve percentage consistently above 65%, and was a sure bet to drop a bomb on big points. He out-aced Roddick, a serve oriented player, in their 2009 Wimbeldon final 50-27.

Against Murray, he served five aces in five sets.

Federer’s accuracy is also down. This was a good thing. When turning Federer into the GOAT, Tony Roach worked hard to ‘cool off’ Roger. As a youngster, Federer played the lines too much and took unnecessary risks. Roach tightened his play.

But now Federer frequently places his ¾ court attacking shots more than a metre inside the sideline. Nowhere is this more apparent than in his games against Nadal, where he is required to frequently rush the net. These approaches come in behind approach shots that don’t put adequate pressure on the Spaniard, who easily makes the pass. Accuracy must improve.

These factors are important, but they pale in significance to the biggest factor in Federer’s decline, the deterioration of his mental game. Any coach will tell you that high level tennis is a mental sport. The best players play their best tennis on the biggest points, where the rewards are greatest thanks to the quirks of the scoring system.

Federer was no exception, but now he chokes hard. He can’t buy a first serve on big points. He also often plays defensively instead of taking the risks commensurate to the rewards on offer.

This trend began with the infamous 2009 Australian Open final against Nadal where Federer cried. He cried because he had thrown everything at Rafa and still lost. But the untold story of that match is Federer’s appalling break point conversion statistics (6/19) and dismal performance returning second serve. Nadal really messed up something in Roger’s head that day and things haven’t been the same since.

I still expect Federer to win big tournaments and beat the top players, but a return to godhood is inconceivable. He just doesn’t care enough, and I think that’s quite alright. He’s still the GOAT.

Mark Fabian is head tennis coach of the ANU Tennis club